Was Jim Irsay right about Peyton Manning?
“Well, if Peyton posted Star Wars number in Indianapolis he destroyed the Death Star in Denver this season. Number eighteen shattered expectations for the Broncos. He now holds the records for both the most touchdowns thrown in a season and the most yardage. For the fifth time in his storied career Manning was named the league MVP. Still, it’s well worth wondering if Irsay was right.”
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Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay is by all accounts a loon, an eccentric billionaire who inherited a fortune and a football team from his father, the man who relocated the Colts from Baltimore. Irsay collects rock memorabilia, Tweets song lyrics and generally behaves oddly. Among the strange things that Irsay has done releasing Peyton Manning is the most notable. Even though number eighteen had won four MVPs and a Lombardi Trophy with Indianapolis Irsay decided that his best move was to move on without the legendary quarterback and draft Andrew Luck with the first overall pick. In the midst of the 2013 NFL season Irsay explained in an interview that the reason he chose that path was that, despite the success Manning had in Indy, it did not translate to multiple championship rings for the Colts’ owner.
Irsay pointed to Manning’s “Star Wars numbers” as a pursuit the organization was no longer intrigued by.
Well, if Peyton posted Star Wars number in Indianapolis he destroyed the Death Star in Denver this season. Number eighteen shattered expectations for the Broncos. He now holds the records for both the most touchdowns thrown in a season and the most yardage. For the fifth time in his storied career Manning was named the league MVP. Still, it’s well worth wondering if Irsay was right. By signing Peyton Manning to a five year, 90 million dollar deal did the Broncos walk right into the trap that the Colts escaped from?
Once again this season Manning operated in an offense that was tailor made to suit him. Every aspect of Denver’s attack was designed to capitalize on the quarterback’s quick decision making and lightening fast delivery. Of the passing yards Manning amassed about 50% resulted from the efforts of his receivers after the catch. Manning frequently delivered the ball a distance of five yards or less and relied on the pass catcher to evade tackles and stretch receptions into first downs. The strategy worked extraordinarily well but does it take a 20 million dollar quarterback to implement it?
The Broncos’ total payroll in 2013 was roughly 89 million dollars. Manning accounted for 15 million of that, or about 17%, slightly less than a fifth. In 2014 Manning’s cap number will grow to 17.5 million. The team faces the same challenge that the Colts did – only worse. How can they build a winning roster around a franchise quarterback who gobbles up so much salary?
The Seahawks won the Super Bowl in a fashion that seems to have signaled a return to NFC style championship football, tough, physical, rugged and defensive. They were able to stack the deck on the defensive side of the ball largely because they were not hamstrung by a veteran quarterback’s salary on the offensive side. Russell Wilson collected just a half-million for his efforts in 2013 yet he and his team mates have rings. The Broncos don’t. Seattle will eventually have to pay their young QB and, if they continue to have the kind of success that they did this season, Wilson will command a mighty price tag. But at least Seattle will have enjoyed four seasons to build elsewhere before they have to pony up.
Rather than finding a starting quarterback through the draft the Broncos (who passed on Wilson in favor of Brock Osweiler) opted to push in all their chips and sign Peyton Manning. In the wake of a second straight season that ended in crushing disappointment people are asking whether Denver’s gamble was good one. 2013 was an improvement over 2012. They were vaporized in the Super Bowl rather than being taken down in the divisional round; but they didn’t offer Peyton Manning the money that they did so that they could fall short. His signing was all about bringing home the hardware and, after two seasons with Manning at the helm, the Denver Broncos have failed to reach that goal.
Now Denver looks ahead to 2014 with a bevy of players entering free agency and lots of unanswered questions. Because they have committed to Manning –at least through next season and possibly through another – they’ll be hamstrung at other spots. There is a massive opportunity cost to having a Hall of Fame quarterback under center, especially one known for freezing in the bright lights of big games.
It’s not fair to blame Denver’s embarrassing loss in the Super Bowl entirely on Peyton Manning but the way it unfolded did fit the naysayer’s narrative. The Ravens loss did, too. Manning has a reputation as a choke artist. Has he done anything to disprove that in Denver?
It’s impossible to speculate as to what might have happened had Elway and Co opted not to pursue Peyton Manning. The only thing that’s certain is that Tim Tebow would have been gone. Whether Denver would have pursued another free agent or moved to secure a quarterback in the draft is difficult to say. It’s highly unlikely that that the Broncos would have won two AFC West titles over the past two seasons but is quite possible that they would be better positioned to be a more competitive team over a longer span of time. As it stands the team is holding its breath just hoping it can hoist a trophy before Peyton Manning decides to retire. After that it’s anybody’s guess as to what happens.
Jim Irsay no longer wanted the Colts to be held captive by Peyton Manning, his enormous paychecks and his consistent failures in big games. He decided to move his team toward a more sustainable path. He sacrificed short-term gains for long-term success. In shedding Manning’s contract and making room for a young quarterback Irsay allowed the Colts to improve dramatically in other areas, turning a team that won only two games in 2011 to a perpetual playoff team by 2013. The Colts will contend next season and every season for the foreseeable future.
Perhaps Peyton and the Broncos will win the big game next year and throw egg on Irsay’s face but for the time being it’s the Broncos who are wiping away the yolk. And, with Peyton Manning soon to turn 38 years old, they’re facing a very uncertain path. Getting to the Super Bowl is tough. Getting there two seasons in a row is rare. If the Broncos don’t return – or of they get back there and lose again – the Peyton Manning experiment will have proven to be a very costly one for the Broncos in the long term.
Plenty of people will make the assertion that Denver would not have gotten to the Super Bowl without Peyton and that may well be true. As the Colts continue to find success in future seasons, though, and the Broncos are left to rebuild, it may turn out that Jim Irsay was right.
