If the Broncos slip they could fall.
“The NFL season is long and it’s too early to assume that San Diego and Kansas City will sustain their momentum for seventeen weeks. But it’s also foolhardy simply to write those teams off. “
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It’s been a pretty darn safe assumption ever since last season that the Denver Broncos would win the AFC West in 2013. It’s an assumption that, while still valid, is rapidly becoming shakier based simply on the dramatic improvement of both the San Diego Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Philip Rivers seems much more comfortable in Mike McCoy’s offense and, despite a week one collapse against the Dallas Cowboys, San Diego’s offense is on a different trajectory than it was last season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are resurgent under Andy Reid. Like their new coach, the Kansas City team is moving forward after a tragic and disheartening 2012.
It’s a surprise to almost everybody that the AFC Western division is as competitive as it is early in the season. It was predicted to be the most dismal in the NFL, with one juggernaut team and three also-rans. The way it’s shaping up, however, only one team, the Oakland Raiders truly looks like it cannot make the playoffs. And, if the Raiders somehow managed to beat Denver on Monday night, they would emerge as a contender as well.
The Broncos can’t take anything for granted. Perhaps the Chiefs being undefeated after three weeks will help to remind them of that. The pressure is on Denver to continue amassing wins and not take weeks off. Naturally, under the leadership of Peyton Manning the team was likely to stay on the throttle regardless, but the surprising pursuit of their divisional opponents would seem to provide a stay-awake call. The NFL season is long and it’s too early to assume that San Diego and Kansas City will sustain their momentum for seventeen weeks. But it’s also foolhardy simply to write those teams off.
The AFC West is suddenly and surprisingly good. In fact, AFC West teams are undefeated versus NFC East teams, which is a flip of the script from pre-season prognostications. This is certainly not the worst division in football. It’s a division in which one little slip could lead to a fall for the Denver Broncos.
While it would be shocking if Denver were not to win the West, but it’s not completely out of the realm of reason – especially not with the key season-ending injury to left tackle Ryan Clady. Clady’s absence on Peyton Manning’s “blind side” will lead to offensive adjustments in Denver scheme, possibly slowing the team’s rapid-fire attack. The Broncos will utilize more two-tight end sets and favor plays that leave the running back in for protection. Keeping a surgically-repaired, twenty million dollar quarterback clean will be John Fox’s top priority. Against active pass rushes (like Oakland’s and Dallas’) Denver’s offense could potentially be less productive.
There’s no need to sound any alarms at this stage, but it is clear that the Broncos will not be handed the division. They will need to go out and win it – and it is beginning to look like all it would take would be a couple of consecutive losses to have them chasing the leader rather than being the leader. Luckily, two of the tougher games on the schedule have already passed. Both Baltimore and New York posed threats and both proved to be cannon fodder. But in both week one and in week two the Broncos benefited from mounds of third quarter scoring after very close first halves. Slow starts can get teams beaten in the NFL.
Hopefully, against Oakland on Monday night, the Broncos will open up a lead sooner. The Raiders probably can’t hang with Denver. The Eagles probably can’t either. Common sense would say that the Broncos will be 4-0 after four games. But they could take their first loss in Dallas in week five. They’ll beat the Jaguars easily in week six, but then they go on the road to face the Colts before facing the Redskins at home heading onto their bye week. If they aren’t careful they could be 6-2 or even 5-3 at the break with the majority of their divisional match-ups coming in the second half of the season. If they slip at all early, they could fall in head-to-head match ups with both San Diego and Kansas City.
