Here’s your stupid Broncos / Chargers playoff prediction
“I don’t usually post my game predictions until Sunday mornings but the diatribe surrounding the upcoming divisional playoff game has been making me insane so I decided to get this one out there a few days early.”
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I don’t usually post my game predictions until Sunday mornings but the diatribe surrounding the upcoming divisional playoff game has been making me insane so I decided to get this one out there a few days early.
The national media is in love with Philip Rivers and the Chargers. I don’t know if it’s because they are the sixth seed facing the first or because they wouldn’t even be in the playoffs if the officials hadn’t screwed up on Ryan Succop’s missed field attempt two weeks ago. Steelers fans have every right to be outraged over that disaster. It kept their team out of the playoffs.
Let’s not forget that potential game winning kick came at the tail end of a game in which the Chiefs had rested twenty of twenty-two starters – and the game was in San Diego – and that they somehow almost lost. I have heard plenty of chatter about how Rivers and company have won five games in a row but precious little about how fortunate they are not to be already golfing.
In the Wildcard round San Diego took out a Bengals team that was painfully unprepared to play. I watched every snap of that contest (I was counting on Dalton and Green in my DraftKings tournaments) and I did not see the Chargers dominate the way that the scoreboard indicated. I saw Cincy crap the bed. Dalton couldn’t hit the side of a barn. Once again, the Chargers got lucky.
The mini-run that San Diego is on reminds me of the Tebow season in Denver. A few unlikely late-season wins (resulting from the mishaps of opponents) and a lucky Wildcard victory has resulted in the Chargers having a shot at the divisional round. But, like the Broncos in the “Tebow year”, the Chargers will go no further.
The slogan that Broncos’ marketing has come up with for the playoff run is “Time to Ride”. It should be “Unleash the Manning”. The Broncos must – and will – pull the cork on Peyton and let it all hang out.
After the Chargers beat the Broncos in December the Denver coaching staff realized that, if Manning were to break Brady’s touchdowns record and Brees’ yardage record they needed to let him sling it around the park. And that’s what they did. Gase let Peyton throw, throw, throw until finally sitting him down for the second half of the Raiders’ game. This strategy worked. Not only did Denver thrash Houston and Oakland, Manning reached his goals and got himself etched into the record books.
Now the Broncos need to utilize the same tact in plowing through the playoffs – starting on Sunday against San Diego. They must pretend that they are still trying to let Manning break those records. What they can’t do is get careful. The Broncos need to toss caution to the wind and score like crazy.
The Chargers offense doesn’t have the horsepower to come from behind the way the Colts did last weekend against Kansas City. If the Broncos can open up a 14 point lead in this one it will be all over but the shouting for San Diego’s much heralded little streak. I’m pretty sure that Adam Gase is aware of this. He also probably knows that the only way San Diego comes away with a win is of they suffocate the Broncos. They need to play a stifling ball-control game the way they did three weeks ago. The Broncos can’t let them do that – and they won’t.
Here’s how I see this one going down.
The Broncos will open up an early 7-0 lead with a typical Peyton Manning bang-bang drive on their first possession of the game. Decker will catch it. This will put the Chargers back on their heels a bit – but they will attempt to stick to their script – at least at first.
San Diego will run a ton in the first half and they will have some success doing so. But they will be forced to punt and / or attempt field goals on their first couple of possessions. I see the score at the end of the first quarter being 14-3 Denver. By the time half-time rolls around the Chargers will still have not found pay dirt but they will have gotten into the red zone a couple of times. Meanwhile, Manning will have been having a comparative field day.
The half time score will be 24-6 Broncos.
At half time it will occur to McCoy and the Chargers coached that they need to pull the trigger with Rivers. The Broncos, on the other hand, will go conservative and try squatting on their lead.
San Diego will score twice early in the second half. Broncos fans begin to get a sense of impending doom. Denver’s conservative “prevent offense” coupled with a couple quick downfield strikes by Rivers will give them a scare.
With the score 24-20 Denver late in the third quarter Manning will let loose again, driving quickly down field. But the Broncos will flounder in the red zone and be forced to settle for a field goal, giving them a seven point lead heading into the final quarter.
On the Chargers next drive Rivers will come out determined to tie the game at 27. Rather than handing off to Matthews he will get remain aggressive and start looking for passing yards in bunches. This is when Champ Bailey, who has been quiet all year, will rise to the occasion. Champ will pick off a Philip Rivers pass in the fourth quarter to send San Diego into a tail spin. Denver will score immediately off the turn over to take a 34-20 lead.
Then Philip Rivers will throw yet another interception. His second of the second half will allow the Broncos to salt the game away. They will score another touchdown to make it 41-20 late in the fourth quarter.
Philip Rivers will try to atone for his mistakes but his efforts will be wasted. Too little too late. San Diego will show some pride and score another touchdown to make it 41-27 Denver before the Broncos take the air out of the ball and prepare to go into victory formation.
Champ will have been the hero in this one, despite Manning also having shined.
Regardless of whether they face Indy or the Pats in the AFC Championship game a week later you can count on Manning to be fired up.
