Don’t get your hopes up, Denver Nuggets fan
Can a George Karl led team win in the playoffs? Don’t get your hopes up.
Welcome to the most exciting time of the year, NBA fan.
You’ve sat through at least 82 games; cheering on your favorite team, going through the highs and lows, debating with friends just how deep into the playoffs they can go.
Now it’s time for your favorite team to put up or shut up.
And if you’re a Nuggets fan, your hopes have to be high.
These new-school Nuggs have set numerous NBA franchise records; their 57 total wins are wonderful, they utterly dominated in Denver – 22 straight home wins to end the season – and are the highest scoring team in the league.
It’s all fool’s gold, my fiend.
We’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well.
Throughout the George Karl coaching era – eight and a half seasons – Denver’s been the highest scoring team three times, the last three consecutive seasons. In fact, the team’s never finished lower than sixth in total scoring under Karl, but it doesn’t translate into playoff wins.
Why not?
Well, if you’re a Nuggets fan, the answer should seem simple; the Nuggs run teams out of the building in Karl’s free-flowing, do whatever you want offense in the regular season. When the intensity is turned up a notch and teams really lock down on defense in the postseason, Denver can’t score nearly as well.
Of course, it can’t be missed that these numbers are based upon the entire regular season output, in which second-leading scorer Danilo Gallinari was playing, scoring leader Ty Lawson was 100 percent and the hardest worker of them all, Kenneth Faried, was good to go. While it’s easy to see how Denver will miss Gallo’s shooting, the Manimal’s been a huge asset on the offensive end, grabbing 3.3 boards per that give him easy scoring opportunities. Injuries will hurt the Nuggets’ chances of getting that elusive first round series win.
Certainly, Karl’s not a half-court offensive genius and the playoffs are all about being able to execute in the half-court; his Nuggets teams lose offensive rhythm and fall. With key starters injured, he’ll have to rely on his deep bench to deliver in the half-court.
Of course, there’s a glimmer of hope with this team. Not only are their 20.1 fast break points per game the best in the league, but this squad plays as a team, moving the ball to open shooters and cutting to the hoop for assisted layups. If they want to win their first round series, Denver’s got to play at their best in the half-court.
But to say Karl’s teams are historically offensive powerhouses is to tell only half the story; they’re also almost always in the bottom third of the league defensively.
This regular season has been no different, with Denver allowing a seventh-worst 101.1 points per. When they’ve given great effort on the defensive end and allowed under 100 points, the team’s gone 33-3; it’s another key to victory. Steph Curry put up 18.5 points per on Lawson in their four regular season matchups, and with Lawson slowed a bit due to his sore foot, Curry could be a big-time boon to the Warriors offense. And with Faried unable to go today, Wilson Chandler will get the start at the power forward position, meaning the Nuggs will be undersized. Can Chandler bang with the bigger David Lee? We’ll see.
And if games come down to the wire, Denver could really be in trouble. Possibly Karl’s biggest weakness as a playoff coach is the dreaded in-bounds play – we don’t have to rehash the 2009 Western Conference Finals – and in crunch time, it seems the most difficult thing for the Nuggets is to get the ball in play. Remember their last loss of this year to Dallas? Andre Miller had Chandler come open outside the three point line, but Miller didn’t pull the trigger and Andre Iguodala was forced to put up a 40-footer that fell sadly short.
So, if the Nuggets want to advance passed Golden State for only the second time in nine tries under Karl, all they have to do is this; execute excellently in the half-court, play superb defense and not choke in clutch time.
The Nuggs should win this series – they’re the three seed and walked all over the Warriors 3-1 during the regular season – but it’s playoff time, when Karl’s teams seem to always take a nose dive.
