How not to get bitten by daily fantasy sports
“First of all, realize that the inevitable 100% deposit bonus you’ll be taking advantage of is the equivalent of that first line of coke you sniffed at the kegger. It’s only free until you hock your microwave to get more of it.”
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I decided to dip my toes into the warm pool of Daily Fantasy sports a little over a year ago and my toes have been bitten plenty in that span of time. I began with an account at FanDuel, where I played the latter portion of the NFL season (and lost about $300) and then migrated to DraftKings as the NBA revved up. Thus far I am money ahead at my preferred site. I have played daily fantasy football, basketball and baseball and have read literally hundreds of articles dealing with lineup tips, strategy and bankroll management and I figured out a few things along the way – things I want to share with folks who may be considering making a buy-in.
First of all, realize that the inevitable 100% deposit bonus you’ll be taking advantage of is the equivalent of that first line of coke you sniffed at the kegger. It’s only free until you hock your microwave to get more of it. Daily fantasy sports sites are gambling sites. The only reason they are legal and online poker is not is that they waft into a grey area in the law.
The powers that be decided a decade ago that fantasy sports leagues are a legal form of friendly wagering and, in season-long form, that’s mostly true. A few pals sink $30 into a ten-player, fourteen-week contest that nets the victors more ego gratification than pure profit. But daily fantasy is far different. Millions of people deposit hundreds of dollars each to compete in weekend contests among strangers with the sole intention of making money. And, like with online poker, only a small percentage of very disciplined individuals actually do in the long run.
To begin with, the host sites all “rake” about 10% of the dollars in each contest. A player who enters a $10 “event” is paying $1 for the privilege. If he loses he’s out ten bucks, but if he wins he’s only up eight, because the other player paid in a buck, too. No matter who wins, the sites make money – billions, in fact. Daily Fantasy is a low-overhead, high margin business that is creating more millionaires with every passing season. That cash comes from someone – and that someone is you.
All that said, I love daily fantasy sports. I am hooked. I am also slowly becoming a winning player. There are several reasons for this.
One reason I have begun to win is the resources I use. Without wanting to give shouts out to each one, I can credit RotoGrinders and NumberFire and give a nod to FootballGuys, which I have used for many years. These sites do an incredible amount of research and share their findings through articles, charts and podcasts. Without them I would not play DFS at all. There are hundreds of good follows on Twitter for DFS advice as well. Interestingly, a large percentage of them migrated from the once-thriving world of online poker.
When entering DFS contests you’ll be offered several choices. One is the basic head-to-head match up where your salary-capped lineup faces off with another player – best score wins. Another is the ever-popular 50 / 50 contest where a bunch of players (usually 50 to 100) enter and the top 50% get paid, while the bottom 50% do not. Then there are 3-player, 5-player, 10-player, 20-player and so on mini-tournaments where a small number of contestants win and “GPP” or guaranteed prize pool tournies where thousands enter, hundreds earn meager profits and a few make serious cash.
At first it can be confusing trying to decide what types of games to play. My advice: start with heads-up and 50 / 50 games and ease into larger games. And manage your money.
The key to winning in DFS is to practice “bankroll management”. In other words, make a deposit and make it last – make it grow. DO NOT TELL YOURSELF THAT YOU CAN ALWAYS DEPOSIT MORE! I made this mistake early and it cost me. It took my churning through my first several buy-ins before I learned to cool it down.
The advice I have gleaned from articles is this: invest no more than 20% of your overall bankroll in a given week (or day) and split that investment 75 / 25 in favor of heads-up and 50 / 50 games while rolling the dice on bigger payouts with the remaining 25%.
So … if you have $100 in your DraftKings account (promo code “Denver”) you can’t play with any more than $20 this week. Of that $20 you want $15 in “double up” games and $5 in multi-way tournaments. If you lose your $5 (odds are you will) hopefully you will make it up by having a better lineup than one other guy or, in the case of a 50 / 50, half the other guys.
A typical week may look like this:
$20 invested
$5 50 /50 win $4.50
$5 one-on-one lose $5.00
$2 one-on-one win $1.75
$2 50 / 50 win $1.75
$1 10-player win $2.50
$1 4,000 player tournament win $3.25
$2 300 player tournament win $2.25
$2 10-player winner-take-all lose $2.00
$9 profit, $109 balance.
My recommendation is to set two lineups for 50 / 50 and one-on-one games and one for multi-player “GPP” tournaments. And, as you get better and have more money to invest, add more lineups – but don’t build more than five or six. Instead of setting lineups willy-nilly do research and make good decisions. When you’re setting lineups for smaller player pools you want high-floor reliable guys. When setting lineups for tournaments you want players who can explode and who other entrants may not have thought to roll the dice on. Winning big means being tricky and taking risks. Winning small and amassing a bankroll means being steady. By playing a small amount of your weekly stake in larger games you have the chance to do both – to hedge your riskier bets with surer ones.
If you’re a beginner it’s wise to take advantage of beginner games. DraftKings considers you to be a beginning for your first 50 entries in a given sport. So long as you still qualify you’re nuts not to enter beginner contests exclusively. Plenty of sharks are waiting in the waters if you don’t.
Remember, the guys who make the big bucks in DFS do it basically for a living. They are studying all day, every day. If you’re a casual player like me you can have fun and make profits so long as you follow the basic rules I have tried to present in this article. It’s worth noting that I do not. So far, with two weeks gone in the NFL season I have pushed all in twice. Luckily I have profited in both weeks. But I am playing on the edge and if I don’t reel it in I am going to burn through deposits. So … I wrote this is much for me as I did for you. See you at DraftKings. My username is SouthStands303. Come at me bro.
